15 Nov 2nd Quarter 2017: Scenic Coast

2nd Quarter 2017

(January-June)

Scenic Coast

Cambria
Cayucos
Los Osos
Morro Bay

The Scenic Coast of San Luis Obispo County represents the group of cities with the smallest market with only 239 homes sold within the four cities that make up this region. The Scenic Coast follows behind the Five Cities area for the second highest median home price, price per square foot, and amount of days on the market.

Scenic Coast 2nd Quarter 2017 vs. 2nd Quarter 2016

239 total number of sales (2017) vs. 253 (2016)
$668,125 median home price (2017) vs. $652,888 (2016)
98% sales vs. list price (2017) vs. 96.75% (2016)
$499.54 price per square foot (2017) vs. $462.08 (2016)
81 cumulative days on market (2017) vs. 99 (2016)
All five aspects of the housing market tracked in this report improved from 2016 to 2017 with the exception of total number of homes sold which was about 15 homes lower than levels seen in the second quarter of the Scenic Coast in 2016.

Total Number of Sales

The total number of sales on the Scenic Coast in the second quarter increased substantially from the first quarter, but total number of sales are down from this time last year. The second quarter alone added 149 total sales to the yearly figure. This suggests the market in the second quarter (March- June) was hotter than it was at the beginning of the year, in the first quarter sales on the Scenic Coast totaled only 90, in the second quarter the accumulated total was 239, more than doubling. The amount of distressed sales decreased from six total foreclosures in the first two quarters of 2016 to only one distressed sale so far in 2017. Cambria represents the city on the Scenic Coast with the most amount of sales at 76, but is closely followed by Morro Bay and Los Osos at totals reaching 69 and 66 respectively. These cities that make up the Scenic Coast besides Cayucos all have very similar figures as you will see throughout the report , making Cayucos the clear outlier. Cayucos is not the only city with the smallest market on the Scenic Coast, but is also the city with the only foreclosure in the area that occurred in the second quarter.

Above compares the total number of sales in the first six months of 2015 through 2017. 2017 is the year that the cities of Cambria and Cayucos had the most amount of sales, both cities second quarter’s figures represent the three year high of homes sold at 28 for Cayucos and 76 for Cambria. The cities of Los Osos and Morro Bay, however, have been consistently declining in total number of sales since 2015. Los Osos once the city with the most sales in 2015 and 2016 dropped down to the city with the second worst showing of total homes sold at only 66, dropping from its high in 2015 of 90 homes sold. The housing markets in Cambria and Cayucos have both improved since 2015 and are growing, while Los Osos and Morro Bay’s markets have declined in total number of sales in the past three years, suggesting the market is slowing down and shrinking as fewer homes are being sold. Los Osos the leader in total homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 dropped in total sales by a substantial amount. It tumbled from the top city on the Scenic Coast in total number of sales, to  having the second lowest total number of home sales within the four cities  of the Scenic Coast.

Median Home Price

Cayucos has the highest median home price in the area. It also had the largest drop in median home price from the first quarter to the second quarter. It decreased from a median of $1,012,500 to $917,600 that is nearly a $100,000 drop in median home price from the three months of the first quarter to the second. Despite, this large drop in median home price Cayucos still remains the most expensive city by a significant amount. Total number of sales increased by 22 sales in the second quarter alone (March-June), compared to the first quarter when sales totaled only 6 in Cayucos. Cambria, being the least expensive city on the Scenic Coast, had the most amount of sales in the area, at 76 for the first half of the year. Morro Bay, Los Osos, and Cambria vary, at most, by only 10 total sales from 66 total homes sold in Los Osos to 76 homes sold in Cambria. Morro Bay is in the middle with 69 total sales. All median home prices increased from the first quarter to the second quarter with the exception of Cayucos, the most expensive city that decreased in price. This drop in home price from first to second quarter suggests that homes sold in the second quarter alone (April-June) were less expensive than those sold in the first quarter (January- March). This drop in prices may have been the reason for the spike in sales from the first quarter when 90 homes were sold to the second quarter when total number of sales more than doubles to a total of 239 homes sold.

From the first two quarters of 2015-2016 all median home prices increased on the Scenic Coast of the Central Coast. In 2017, Los Osos had the lowest median home price on the Scenic Coast, this is the same for the past three years tracked above. However, Los Osos also had the second lowest amount of sales compared to all the cities on the Scenic Coast in 2017. The low home prices in Los Osos, are no longer enough for more buyers to purchase homes within this city, this was not always the case in 2015 and 2016, Los Osos’ low home prices attracted the most homebuyers on the Scenic Coast, as It had the most total number of sales in the area in these past 2 years. Homes sold in Los Osos have been steadily declining from 2015. In 2017 as Los Osos’ total number of sales dropped down from being number one and having the most amount of sales at this same time in the past two years, to having the second lowest total homes sold in 2017. Los Osos’ total homes sold dropped below Morro Bay’s and Cambria’s totals in 2017, breaking the pattern of Los Osos representing the least expensive city with the most amount of sales. Cayucos and Morro Bay are the two cities  that show improvement on a yearly basis, with their median home price increasing year on year. Los Osos and Cambria reached their three year peak in 2016.

Sales vs List Price

When comparing the sales vs. list price of each city against the median home price of each city, you notice these two factors are highly correlated. The sales vs. list price percentages, lists the cities of the Scenic Coast in the opposite order as the median home price list. As homes with the highest median home price also have the lowest sales price compared to list price. Because of Cayucos’ high median home prices, buyers aren’t willing to pay as much of the list price than in other cities on the Scenic Coast as it was the city with the lowest sales vs. list price at 95%. The only exception to the median home price and sales vs. list price comparison is Los Osos, with a median home price of $554,500, only $4,000 above Cambria’s median home price yet buyers are willing to pay the most of the sales price in Los Osos with a 100% sale vs. list price.

Price Per Square Foot

Cayucos leads the way yet again in pricing factors. It has the highest price per square foot, matching its highest median home price, of all the cities on the Scenic Coast. Morro Bay comes in a far second of $300 less a square foot, but matches the median home price data where it is again significantly lower, approximately $150,000 less than Cayucos’ median home price. Los Osos had the lowest price per square foot, followed by Cambria making it the city with the second lowest price per square foot. However, Cambria is the city with the lowest median home price. This suggests homes in Cambria are smaller than homes in Los Osos. Los Osos is the city on the Scenic Coast where you can get the most square footage  for the price of the home.

Cumulative Days on Market

Cayucos leads the way on cumulative days on market averaging 134 days that a home sits on the market for before being purchased. Not only does Cayucos have the highest cumulative days on market out of all the cities on the Scenic Coast, but also has the highest median home price in the area with the least amount of sales. All of this data are indications of a weaker housing market in Cayucos compared to the other cities across the Scenic Coast.  Los Osos’ cumulative days on market dropped by nearly half from the first quarter. This means that the homes sold in the second quarter alone (April-June) sold at a very fast pace with most selling in a month or less.